Executive Summary

Q3 2025 revenue declined 1.6% to $82.3M with net loss widening to $24.5M, as the company absorbed $6.9M of store closure costs and a $1.4M impairment tied to Smokey Bones optimization; Twin Peaks’ restaurant-level margin expanded to 17.0% while total restaurant-level margin improved 90 bps YoY to 9.6% .
Twin Peaks brand revenue rose 5.3% YoY to $50.3M on new lodge openings; Smokey Bones revenue fell 10.8% to $32.0M due to closures and conversions; consolidated adjusted EBITDA increased to $3.0M from $2.3M YoY despite higher G&A tied to closures and equity comp .
Management reiterated conversion-led growth (19 prime Smokey Bones conversion candidates identified) and expects Smokey Bones restaurant-level profitability to improve beginning in early 2026; Q4 should benefit from a strong sports calendar and ongoing cost actions .
Street estimates (S&P Global) for EPS and revenue were not available for Q3 2025; focus shifts to narrative drivers: margin trajectory at Twin Peaks, closure/impairment normalization, and pace of conversions and equity raise execution (target range reaffirmed) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Twin Peaks margin expansion and brand resilience: Twin Peaks restaurant-level contribution margin increased 72 bps YoY to 17.0% (from 16.3%); brand revenue +5.3% YoY to $50.3M on new lodges .
Conversion strategy outperforming: First two Smokey Bones-to-Twin Peaks conversions more than doubled revenue, with AUVs ~$7.8M vs ~$3.5M pre-conversion; pipeline includes 82 committed lodges and 19 prime Smokey Bones conversion candidates .
Adjusted EBITDA up YoY: Consolidated adjusted EBITDA increased to $3.0M from $2.3M YoY, aided by Twin Peaks strength and cost discipline despite weaker Smokey Bones .

“Looking ahead, we have a clear pipeline for 2026…targeting Smokey Bones to achieve improved restaurant-level profitability beginning in early 2026.” — CFO Ken Kuick .
“Our conversion strategy continues to yield outstanding results, with Twin Peaks locations consistently outperforming their former Smokey Bones operations by a significant margin.” — CFO Ken Kuick .

What Went Wrong

Same-store sales softness and regional headwinds: Twin Peaks SSS -4.1% in Q3, pressured by headwinds in markets like San Antonio and Austin (including immigration-related issues), partially offset by new unit growth .
Elevated G&A and non-recurring costs: G&A rose to $19.5M from $7.2M YoY on $6.9M store closure costs, $1.4M impairment, and higher non-cash share-based comp; net loss widened to $24.5M from $16.2M .
Smokey Bones profitability deterioration: Brand restaurant-level margin was -0.3% vs +0.3% YoY as higher-performing units were taken offline for conversion and 11 underperformers closed YTD .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L (sequential trend)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)	$87.1	$87.8	$82.3
Net Loss ($M)	$(12.1)	$(20.8)	$(24.5)
Restaurant-Level Contribution Margin (%)	11.2%	11.8%	9.6%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$5.1	$5.2	$3.0
G&A Expense ($M)	$6.8	$19.9	$19.5

Year-over-Year (Q3)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)	$83.7	$82.3
Net Loss ($M)	$(16.2)	$(24.5)
Restaurant-Level Contribution Margin (%)	8.7%	9.6%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$2.3	$3.0

EPS (GAAP Diluted, continuing ops)

Period	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Diluted EPS	$(0.3233)	$(0.3778)	$(0.4270)

Segment/Brand Mix

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Twin Peaks Revenue ($M)	$51.0	$51.1	$50.3
Smokey Bones Revenue ($M)	$36.1	$36.7	$32.0
Twin Peaks RLC Margin (%)	16.9%	17.7%	17.0%
Smokey Bones RLC Margin (%)	4.4%	4.9%	-0.3%
System-wide Sales ($M)	$182.3	$181.9	$170.7
Twin Peaks System-wide Sales ($M)	$146.2	$145.2	$138.8
Twin Peaks SSS (%)	-1.5%	-4.4%	-4.1%

Estimates vs. Actuals (S&P Global)

Metric	Q3 2025 Consensus	Q3 2025 Actual
Revenue ($M)	NA (Unavailable via S&P Global)	$82.3
EPS (GAAP)	NA (Unavailable via S&P Global)	$(0.4270)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	NA (Unavailable via S&P Global)	$3.0

Note: S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable for EPS, revenue, and EBITDA for Q3 2025.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue/EPS/EBITDA	FY/Q4 2025	None issued	None issued	Maintained “no quantitative guidance” posture .
Smokey Bones Restaurant-Level Profitability	Early 2026	Not previously dated	Targeting improvement beginning in early 2026	New qualitative timing detail .
Equity Raise Target	2025	$75–$100M (communicated earlier in 2025)	“Remain confident in achieving full annual equity target range” to support debt reduction and growth investments	Maintained confidence .

No numeric guidance ranges (revenue, margin, OpEx, OI&E, tax rate) were provided this quarter .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1–Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Conversion Strategy	Q1: 2 conversions complete; pipeline of 100 agreements; third conversion under construction . Q2: Acceleration of conversions; 30 Smokey Bones to convert; Fayetteville franchise conversion by YE; Kissimmee in process .	19 prime Smokey Bones conversion candidates; conversions more than double AUVs ($7.8M vs $3.5M); 82 committed lodges; 2–4 additional 2026 conversions pending capital .	Continued execution; focus shifts to funding and throughput.
Margin Management	Q1: Twin Peaks RLC 16.9%; cost control, pricing measured . Q2: Twin Peaks RLC 17.7%; cost discipline; menu simplification tests .	Twin Peaks RLC 17.0%; total RLC +90 bps YoY; labor/other operating/occupancy leverage improved YoY .	Mixed: YoY improving, sequentially lower due to closures and deleveraging.
Sports Calendar Tailwinds	Q1: NCAA drove March uptick; plan for NBA/NHL/UFC/boxing . Q2: Softer NBA/NHL due to team mix; set up for H2 football .	Expect Q4 boost from football playoffs and campaigns; strong weekly system-wide sales $11.3M over past 12 weeks .	Positive setup into Q4.
Regional/Macro Headwinds	Q1: Weather/macro pressured SSS . Q2: Sales deleverage impacted costs .	Immigration-related issues and regional headwinds (San Antonio, Austin) pressured comps .	Headwinds persist in select markets.
G&A/One-time Costs	Q1: G&A $6.8M . Q2: G&A spiked from equity comp after listing .	G&A $19.5M on $6.9M closures, $1.4M impairment, higher SBC .	One-time items elevated; expected to normalize ex-closures.
Legal/Regulatory	—	Q2 contextual: DOJ dropped charges against parent FAT Brands and others .	Overhang reduced; not a Q3 focal point.

Management Commentary

“Twin Peaks delivered a solid performance, expanding restaurant-level contribution margin to 17.0%... Sales within core markets also grew year-over-year despite regional headwinds.” — CEO Kim Boerema .
“The first two Smokey Bones to Twin Peaks conversions have more than doubled revenue, achieving AUVs of $7.8M vs $3.5M as Smokey Bones.” — CEO Kim Boerema .
“Total system-wide sales were $170.7M... Twin Peaks system-wide sales were $138.8M... Twin Peaks revenue was $50.3M (up 5.3% YoY)... Smokey Bones revenue was $32.0M (down 10.8% YoY).” — CFO Ken Kuick .
“We remain confident in achieving our full annual equity target range to support debt reduction and growth investments.” — CFO Ken Kuick .
“Targeting Smokey Bones to generate stronger restaurant-level contribution margins beginning in early 2026.” — CFO Ken Kuick .

Q&A Highlights

Q3 call: No Q&A; prepared remarks only .
Q2 call (context):
- Conversions roadmap: ~30 of ~60 Smokey Bones targeted for conversion; mix of company-owned and franchise; majority completed or underway over ~12 months .
- G&A trajectory: Q2 spike was largely equity grants post-listing; expected to decline thereafter; focus on consolidating Twin Peaks/Smokey Bones G&A by year-end .
- Margin outlook: Twin Peaks margins viewed as maintainable/improvable via cost work, simplification, and sports calendar normalization .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025 revenue and EPS was unavailable; GetEstimates returned no consensus values for EPS and revenue, only actual revenue recognition of $82.316M. As a result, we benchmarked performance vs. prior periods and management commentary rather than consensus beats/misses (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
Given the lack of coverage, estimate revisions may focus on: (i) Twin Peaks margin durability into Q4, (ii) the run-rate impact of closure/impairment normalization on G&A, and (iii) cadence and funding of 2026 conversions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Twin Peaks remains the economic engine: brand revenue growth and 17% restaurant-level margin underpin consolidated adjusted EBITDA resilience despite Smokey Bones pressure .
Elevated G&A largely tied to closures/impairment and SBC; normalization plus cost discipline should be a tailwind to earnings quality going forward if closure cadence slows .
Conversion math compelling: >2x AUV uplift on conversions supports capital allocation into Twin Peaks; near-term watch items are capital availability and execution throughput .
Near-term trading setup skews to Q4 sports calendar, with narrative catalysts around weekly sales momentum and margin flow-through; any update on equity raise progress is a potential stock mover .
Medium-term thesis hinges on: (i) completing the Smokey Bones portfolio optimization, (ii) sustaining Twin Peaks margin profile and SSS stabilization, and (iii) deleveraging with equity proceeds and improved cash generation .
Absence of Street estimates reduces “headline beat/miss” volatility; investors should track sequential margin trends, G&A normalization, and unit conversion milestones as primary signals .

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